The outbreak of the Corona virus pandemic has
brought so much anxiety and untold suffering in the world. Not only has the
pandemic received unprecedented world renown and attention within a short
period of time than any other pandemic, but it has also revealed how ill-prepared
even supposedly advanced nations can be. Who ever thought a virus could so
decimate the civilized world as this pandemic has done? Though proud and
arrogant, man is a very vulnerable and fragile creature! With all our apparent
cunning and boasted wisdom we couldn’t stem let alone squeeze the corona bug in
time to prevent untold suffering and potentially huge economic losses! How unfortunate.
If only the outbreak of this pandemic was known in advance, at least something could
have been done to contain its onslaught before it unleashed itself on
unsuspecting masses earth with full force. It is sad that so many people have lost
their lives in so short a period of time.
Preparedness for pandemic
Very few countries, if any, were adequately prepared
to counteract the effects of the Corona virus pandemic not to mention its
deadly attack. To my knowledge all nations were caught off-guard and their
responses to the outbreak were mostly reactive and rather feeble. No wonder why
so many lives have been lost! The lower infection rates in some regions may not
be attributed to their being proactive but rather to chance or other factors we
may know not of especially when we take into account the fact that those
nations that were in a better position to protect themselves are the worst hit.
This pandemic has brought out so many issues. It has
shown how porous and flawed our early warning and response systems are. It has
also highlighted the mediocrity of our public health and social protection
systems and policies.
State of public health and social protection systems
This
makes a lot of sense when we consider what has become a normal and seemingly
prestigious trend or practice in some developing countries. Most of these
countries have done very little to develop or upgrade their health
infrastructure and institutions. This neglect has even been reinforced due to
the fact that scarcely any high profile people ever get to use them. What do we
hear whenever these people get sick? Evacuated to South Africa, India, such and
such a country for specialist treatment! Apparently, all sicknesses involving
high profile figures are specialist cases, whatever that means! There is a
Bemba saying which says “akachila kambushi kasengula apo kekele”, which
literally implies that one needs to take care of where they live. The pandemic
has clearly shown that this mentality of rushing to other countries whenever we
fall sick will never take us anywhere. We had better take care of and utilize
what we have!
With government commitment and
the cooperation of the people, recent massive development of public infrastructure including health institutions may help a lot in stemming this trend.
When calamities strike it is usually those on the fringes of social and economic spectra who suffer the most. They are also often the last to recover from the ravages of disasters. Social protection programs could therefore play a very big role in relieving the effects of the pandemic on the poor. Such initiatives as social cash transfer, farmer input support programs, and other social safety nets will go a long way in mitigating the adverse effects of the pandemic especially in developing countries. However, since the current social programs in these countries may not be that effective in addressing the challenges posed by the pandemic, it could help a lot if such initiatives were restructured so that they effectively respond to the needs of the masses, especially the poor.
Looming economic recession
Generally, developing countries, especially those in Africa have
not been that much affected by the corona virus pandemic compared to countries
in the west. The repercussions of containment measures are however likely to be
with us for some time. The current looming economic downturn is one such
repercussion. Though there are a number of policy options available to
developing countries to mitigate the effects, they have very little room to
manoeuvre due to a heavy debt burden and dependence on commodity exports for
foreign exchange revenue. While
developed countries like the US have
economic relief laws that
includes rounds of stimulus payments for most of their taxpayers,as well as loan programs for businesses to be able to keep paying their employees in a bid to
combat the looming recession, most developing countries cannot sustain such
programs. Falling export earnings for developing countries
Though developing countries have limited capacity to
deal with the aftermath of the pandemic, there is still something that can be done in addition to social protection
programs alluded to above: - Easing
fiscal and monetary policy
- Renegotiating
loans with creditor nations and institutions
- Accessing
IMF Special Drawing Rights reserve asset facility to supplement local reserves
- Applying
for IMF’s Catastrophe Containment and Relief (CCR)Trust financial grant
However, countries with huge debt burdens have a lot
of negotiation to do to access financial help.
Reflections on looming recession
These threats to the world and local
economies are very real especially when we take into account the fact that most
countries’ economies had not been doing that well due to trade wars by the time
the pandemic struck. What the pandemic has done is to worsen the already
fragile economic outlook of countries the world over. Since most countries are
not involved in optimal production due to containment measures like lock downs and mobility restrictions,
it is just natural that their GDPs will fall. That is why there are looming
fears of a world- wide recession, which recession has already begun showing its ugly head.
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